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Directed damage stats.

 
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storeylf
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Joined: 24 Jul 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:17 pm    Post subject: Directed damage stats. Reply with quote

The tactics manual has a section on directed targeting, it also includes in the Romulan section some stats on directed targeting. On reading the Romulan section I couldn't help but feel that the stats looked wrong, on targeted power mainly. So I've been looking at them myself, trying to work out where they came from. I'm less interested in whether this affects whether you should or should not target certain systems, just in having the correct information.

To recap, here is Patricks figures based on 30 internals (he notes they are rounded):

(Power = power generation/batteries, Weapons = torp/drone/phaser).

None: power = 5/2, weapons = 1/1/3
Power: power = 7/2, weapons = 0/0/1
Weapons: power = 4/2, weapons = 2/2/4

I assume that is against a pristine ship. What is less clear is whether that was against the Fed NCA he was discussing in the previous paragraph, and what framing strategy was applied (what systems would the target use frame to protect the last one). Clearly different ships may produce slightly different stats, as the mix of systems affects what can or cannot be taken, or when frame can be used etc. Framing will affect things by stopping alt hits after a system has run out etc.


So first of all what happens if we ignore who is the target and framing, and just look at the DAC, i.e. 30 hits all hitting the top system (they never run out so alts will never kick in). I get these stats with a simulator. But this is fairly easy to do without a simulator, just tot up the number of each system along all 6 tracks and divide by 6, that gives you an average per 10 damage (obviously quite variable in a game). Remembering for targeting to count the 1 or 6 rows 3 times and the other ends 2 tracks not at all.

For 30 internals this produces (I've retained the halves, that isn't rounding, the 0.5s come out nicely in the averages).

None: power = 6/2, weapons = 1/1/2.5
Power: power = 10/2.5, weapons = 0.5/0.5/1
Weapons: power = 3.5/1.5, weapons = 2/2/4


The bit that sticks out, and is what felt immediately wrong with the stats in the manual was the power damage from aiming at power. All the other bits could be just rounding, even the no aiming at power (5 vs 6) might be just some rounding in Patrick's stats. But 7 power vs 10 power isn't an obvious rounding problem. going from 7 power to 10 seems quite a significant gain from what Patrick was basing his advice on, but that might not affect his advice?



At any rate, as I noted I was not sure whether Patrick was talking about the damage a Fed NCA takes in that paragraph (as he was earlier in that section). So I ran some simulations of that particular ship taking 30 internals, and for interest also applied different framing strategies.

A) is where the NCA frames nothing, he just takes each system exactly as it states. (I have rounded here, to nearest whole, as we start getting all sorts of odd fractions, I've added with comments if it looks more interesting). I've also added the total blue boxes and pink boxes in brackets afterwards without rounding to give a better idea).

None: power = 7/2, weapons = 1/1/3 (8.87, 4.64)
Power: power = 10/3, weapons = 1/1/1 (13.23, 2.00)*
Weapons: power = 4/2, weapons = 2/2/4 (5.64, 8.06)

* The Torp and Drone are both exactly 0.5, so it may be more reasonable to expect 1 or the other.

Basically due to the systems on an NCA there is slightly more power being hit than in the above chart - lack of rear hull results in an odd extra power hit, it's also possible to lose 2 transporters and have a 3rd become a battery hit.


B) is where the NCA frames power and weapons, as many people do. But not hull/yellows.

None: power = 7/2, weapons = 1/1/3 (8.73, 4.38 )
Power: power = 10/3, weapons = 1/0/1 (12.95, 1.93)*
Weapons: power = 4/2, weapons = 2/1/4 (5.53, 7.09)*

*Because you are framing your 2nd drone then you never lose 2, this reduces the overall average for drones a tad, meaning that with rounding you see a drop, especially when aiming at weapons.



C) is where the target will additionally frame the hull hits, as suggested in the Tactics manual.

None: power = 6/2, weapons = 1/1/3 (8.13, 4.22)
Power: power = 10/3, weapons = 1/0/1 (12.49, 1.93)
Weapons: power = 4/2, weapons = 2/1/4 (5.25, 6.96)

No clear difference in individual systems, but that is largely due to rounding. There is a slight reduction in both categories, slghtly more reduction to the power hits, which makes sense given that framing hull was more likely to stop some extra power hits and the odd weapon hit.


Last edited by storeylf on Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:38 pm; edited 1 time in total
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storeylf
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Joined: 24 Jul 2008
Posts: 1897

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I need a life.

I've been looking at this a bit more, wondering whether mean averages are that useful (I assume that was what Patrick was doing as he mentioned rounding, and his results were not that different to mine either).

With directed targeting you score big or not much, and there are some results that are just not possible with 3 rolls down the DAC. 10 power generation hits for example can't happen, yet it is the average. So I've played around a bit and got some graphs for the distribution of power hits (generating systems, not batteries).



Assuming that image finally comes out OK.

That is for 30 internals vs an NCA that is framing wpns/power/hull.

So when aiming at power 50%of the time you score more than 10, the other 50% less than 10, but you will never score 10. The most common single result is 12, but 8 or 9 is not uncommon.
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Mike
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

May I suggest you check out the DAC tables in the alternative Alpha Strike damage allocation system published in the CL#41 Supplemental File? They include standard and directed targeting and are spot-on for the percentages.
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storeylf
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Joined: 24 Jul 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

'Fraid I don't have that.

The simulator I have is pretty good at telling me most things I might want to know.
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storeylf
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Joined: 24 Jul 2008
Posts: 1897

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In reality a single 30 internal point volley is probably not the that common, so averages are probably better. Doing all that damage probably came from a combination of weapons that could have well scored more or less than that, or from multi ships which may have scored burn through prior to taking shields down, or benefited from a mizia affect. Given you have to declare aiming up front, you can't be sure you will get 30 internals or not.

For example 3 D7 and 3 F5 aiming at power and firing from range 9/10 down their oblique produce pretty darn close to a nice bell curve around 11 power hits, whilst showing a bell curve around 33 internals.
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